Poisson Distribution Odds For Home Wins

Poisson Distribution For Football Betting & Trading

Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Odds For Home Wins for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.

By using goals averages for leagues and both involved teams, we calculate teams’ Defence Strength & Attack Strength values.

The next step is to use the Poisson Distribution Formula to find probabilities of all scores from 0-0 to 5-5 to find the most likely score-lines.

Furthermore, we group all the probabilities into results outcomes for various markets such as home or away win, draws, under/over goals markets etc.

Once we have our probabilities, we convert the estimated chances into odds that we can then analyse and compare with the currently available prices.

We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading

Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:

Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.

All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.

* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.

How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?

We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.

Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:

CS – 1.6
L20 – 1.7
L50 – 1.55

Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.

Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.

It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.

Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.